Mick Hartley

Joshua Muravchik has a long piece at Quillette on Syria and the new evolving calculus in the region. Iran and Russai are the big losers, of course. The winners? Well, Israel…and Turkey. An extract:

Small and outnumbered as Israel is, the aura of its power is what saves it from relentless attack. With a few farsighted exceptions, the Arab and Muslim worlds still do not accept Israel as a neighbour. Yet, most of that world has made explicit or tacit peace with the Jewish state simply because they know that making war on it is self-defeating. Survival depends on deterrence for all states in theory, but for Israel this is more concretely so.

The current war with the axis of resistance is still not over. Israel is determined to finish off Hamas, and there is yet a reckoning coming with the Houthis and Iran itself. In the end, if things play out in Israel’s favour, this war may be followed by a peace agreement, not only with Saudi Arabia, but also with a bevy of other Arab states. When the Ayatollahs are overthrown, Israel will have peace with Iran, too. In that dream scenario, Israel would enjoy a more secure existence than it has ever known.

One cloud over this idyllic image is the other big winner of the Syrian revolt—Turkey, the main patron of HTS. Its president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is an Islamist of the Muslim Brotherhood strain. In an article for MEMRI, of which he is vice president, Alberto Fernandez, who has served as a US official dealing with the Middle East, suggests that with Erdoğan’s help and guidance (and Qatar’s money), HTS might erect an Islamist state in Syria. It would shun the extremism of ISIS and instead reflect the relative moderation of the Muslim Brotherhood. This could energise emulators across the Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan, and North Africa, where Islamist movements already boast substantial support but have been held in check by their respective governments.

Such Sunni Islamist states might mostly avoid direct confrontation but would be unfriendly to the West, to Israel, and to the liberties of their citizens—women and minorities especially. Those targets of its enmity would face the disappointment of seeing the challenge of Shi’ite Islamism replaced by Sunni Islamism. For Israel, that might mean a cold peace in the short run but not acceptance, and the prospect of new conflict eventually. For the US, it would mean a region devoid of the close ties it currently enjoys with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and others. This would be a boon to those bent on cutting America down to size.

But worth reading in full.