Mick Hartley

A look back at North Korea's 2024, from Gil-sup Kwak at the Daily NK:

The most significant development was Kim Jong Un’s introduction of the “Hostile Two-State Theory” through his speeches at the Party Plenary Meeting on Dec. 30, 2023, and the Supreme People’s Assembly on Jan. 15, 2024. This represented a Copernican revolution in North Korean policy by rejecting the concept of unified Korean ethnicity, designating South Korea as the primary enemy state, and explicitly diverging from his predecessors’ approach toward South Korea.

Kim Jong Un’s shift from dialogue and cooperation to confrontation with South Korea was driven by several factors: first, the need to counter the increasing spread of individualism and admiration for South Korea among North Korean citizens exposed to foreign information, particularly South Korean popular culture; second, the tactical advantages of dividing South Korean public opinion and pressuring the United States; and third, Kim’s psychological need to differentiate himself from his predecessors, possibly stemming from what might be described as an “illegitimate son-Oedipus complex” from his childhood.

This independent course was supported by concrete actions: strengthening internal controls and promoting Kim Jong Un’s personality cult (abolishing the Juche calendar, reducing emphasis on the Day of the Sun, distributing Kim’s portraits and badges), focusing on military capabilities enhancement, conducting balloon provocations against South Korea (32 instances), signing a mutual defense treaty with Russia, and deploying troops (approximately 12,000) to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The most crucial factor driving Kim’s “Hostile Two-State Theory” appears to be his assessment that traditional unification tactics based on exchange and cooperation were actually undermining regime stability through the spread of South Korean influence. This led to a strategic shift toward separation and containment policies to ensure regime security while strengthening nuclear capabilities for potential forceful reunification.

As I've said before, Great Leader Kim Il Sung's dream of reunification was predicated on the belief – not unrealistic at the time – that North Korea would be the stronger partner, and reunification would just be a matter of the South submitting to the North. Some seventy years on, that vision is dead and buried. North Korea is an economic basket-case and cultural desert only surviving through its links with China and Russia, while South Korea has become an economic and cultural powerhouse – despite the recent "martial law" blip. The only conceivable reunification would see the North subsumed into the South. Clearly that is something the Kim dynasty cannot allow. So…the “Hostile Two-State Theory”.