Mick Hartley

There's an interview with Natan Sharansky in Tablet. He was born in Ukraine – Donetsk, or Stalino as it was known then – and has much of interest to say. It's worth reading in full, but here are a couple of excerpts:

Russia is not the strongest country and Putin is not the strongest leader in the world. In fact, Russia today is something like 3% of the world economy and NATO represents something closer to 50%. And here it is very important to understand Putin’s psychology. From my time among criminals in prison, I know very well that the one who’s the ringleader in the cell is not the one who is physically strongest, but the one who is ready to use his knife. Everybody has a knife, but not everybody is prepared to use it. Putin believes that he is willing to use his knife and the West isn’t, that the West can only talk, even if it is physically stronger.

I have to remind you that the first step in this Ukraine process was Crimea. It started after President Obama drew a red line in Syria about chemical weapons, and then when it was crossed he did nothing. That was an awful sign. The immediate results were that Putin brought his armies to Syria and established a base there—in fact, he got the keys to Syria’s airspace—and then he went into Crimea. He checked whether the West would react, and when it didn’t he not only took Crimea but he also started this separatist movement in the Donbas, saying that it all was historical Russia. So that was the beginning.

Now, he’s in the second stage, and he is especially feeling the weakness of America. I think—I don’t know for sure, but I think—that the withdrawal from Afghanistan showed him that it would be very difficult for this American government to mobilize for military action. And so he can threaten nuclear weapons. He says, “Ukraine is not a country, we’re going to bring it back to Russia, and those who stand in our way will suffer such damage they’ve never known in their history.” So all his means of deterrence are prepared.

And America’s answer is to cancel training of their nuclear forces which had been planned for a year. The Pentagon cancels it and says, “It’s because we don’t want to be responsible for bringing danger to the United States.” So Putin couldn’t get a better sign that his deterrence works. So now he really believes he is the strongest leader in the world, not only because he is prominent, and not only because he doesn’t have to worry about things like these silly Western elections, but also because he is ready to threaten nuclear war and his enemies are not. He is willing to use his knife.

And on the question of Israel's coolness on the united Western response to Putin's aggression:

I can tell you my position, but unfortunately I am in the minority. From the very first day of the invasion I said that this is not simply a historical struggle between Russia and Ukraine. It’s not simply between a vicious dictator and a sympathetic, democratic leader. It’s an effort to change all the basic principles on which the free world has stood since the Second World War. The whole free world is in danger, and Israel is a part of that.

Israel cannot survive simply by playing itself off between dictators. We should be the first to understand that. So for us morally, and for the world publicly, and for the survival of the free world, we have to be clearly on one side. Strategically, we should not be hesitant to speak very clearly and publicly about it.

People here tell me I don’t understand that the most important moral obligation of Israel is to the security of Israeli citizens, and that to protect that security we must have the freedom to operate in Syria. Now, on the tactical level, there is no doubt that we are dependent on an agreement with Putin when we attack Iranian bases in Syria. From 2013 onward, there was such weakness with the Obama administration in Syria, where they weren’t going to challenge this new Russian military presence, and then in 2015, there was an additional agreement with Iran, under which America sent billions and billions of dollars to Tehran, some of it in cash. And with Hezbollah turning into a real army and building new bases together with Iran and Syria and Lebanon, we had no choice but to have a strategic understanding with Putin. So Putin is always using Iran as his threat to America, and at the same time he permits Israel to attack the bases of Iran in Syria.

Now we are facing the new Iran deal in a few days maybe. So the free world is taking many steps to take away billions of dollars from Putin, and at the same time, it is making sure Iran will receive billions of dollars—and as in the case of Obama, it will not be linked to any Iranian obligation to stop terrorist activity in the region, or to drop their commitment to destroying the state of Israel. So, no doubt, a lot of that new money will go to their operations in Syria. And Israel will have to destroy them. So we will be even more dependent on Putin.

I think as part of the struggle of the free world against Putin, it also has to help Israel fight against its dependence on him in Syria. Because in general, the interests of Jewish people and the interests of Israel, of course, are that Putin’s aggression should be stopped.

Today, we see that even with all the love and compassion and sympathy which the world has directed to Zelensky and the Ukrainians, in fact the free world has already decided that they will be the victims. So we have to always be capable of defending ourselves.