Mick Hartley

With Gaddafi's regime in Tripoli – Pyongyang-On-The-Mediterranean – now teetering, what of the actual Pyongyang? There are notable similarities between Libya and North Korea in terms of the cult of personality, exemplified by the ubiquitous posters of the Great Leader; of the notion of a ruling family dynasty; and in the promotion of an absurd Socialist-based national ideology – Gaddafi's Green Book, and the Kims' Juche Idea. And of course in the ruthless brutality just underneath the Orwellian surface. But the chances of a Kimjongilia Revolution to match the Jasmine Revolution are, frankly, slim:

Unlike people in the Middle East, North Koreans have virtually no access to the Internet, and they have no experience staging organized protests. "The only political experience North Koreans have is the Chosun Dynasty, Japanese colonial occupation and the Kim dynasty dictatorship," a defector said. "They just don’t have a lot of awareness about democratization or regime change."

Also, the military remains fiercely loyal to Kim Jong-il. In Egypt, the Hosni Mubarak regime collapsed when the military turned its back on it. And compared with oil-producing Libya with its per-capita GNI of US$18,400 (as of 2009), North Korea's GNI is only $960, which means that there is practically no middle class that could orchestrate public discontent.

The North Korean military is nonetheless on high alert, concerned about the spread of the small outbursts of discontent, as China is also seeing signs of public uprisings including a protest in the Wangfujing district downtown Beijing. Quoting sources in Onsong, North Hamgyong Province, the DailyNK said Friday that news of the protests in Egypt are spreading in North Korea via Chinese TV channels or phone calls with defectors. "Officials are having a tough time trying to keep the rumors from spreading," it said.

South Korea's Minister of Unification is equally pessimistic:

In a new interview today, Minister of Unification Hyun In Taek revealed that he thinks the current ‘winds of democratization’ will not have the strength to blow as far as North Korea, suggesting that geography and the country’s continuing isolation from technological advances are likely to mitigate against it.

Speaking with Yonhap News, Hyun said, “Since the North Korean people cannot use the internet freely, and North Korean TV does not report on this, the people don’t even know the facts.”

“The core of the North Korean regime is able to know about it and is watching these facts, and of course they are trying to stop it from having a harmful influence on the North Korean system,” Hyun did concede, but pointed out, “It is also geographically rather far removed, so the power to affect the North Korean people directly does not seem to be all that great.”

“As a result, right now I’m thinking, is the effect not likely to be exceedingly slight.”

A week or so back no one thought the Tunisian and Egyptian revolts would spread to Libya, of course. But it's likely that the only way the Kim dynasty would be seriously threatened would be if the gathering clamour for democracy extended first to the streets of China. Then all bets would be off.