Mick Hartley

When eleven Hezbollah ministers resigned from Lebanon's national unity government a couple of weeks back, to forestall the likely indictment of Hezbollah members by the Special Tribunal for their part in the assassination of Rafik Hariri, it threw the country into a new crisis. The resulting government collapse has been largely overshadowed by other events in the area: most notably, the Tunisian uprising. Also - perhaps another reason why comment has been hard to come by – it's difficult for outsiders to grasp the extraordinary complexity of Lebanese politics, or to predict how it's all going to turn out. Whatever happens though it's likely that we'll be hearing a lot more about it, and sooner rather than later. Here's Michael Young to provide his usual sharp analysis:

If Hezbollah takes effective control in Beirut, this will represent an essential challenge for the international community, above and beyond what it means for the Special Tribunal. Such a development will make very relative Hamas’ takeover of the Gaza Strip. While the new government will try to sell itself more as a Syrian than an Iranian construct, the fact is that it will be propped up by Hezbollah’s bayonets, with Syria facing the discomfort of being blamed for the behavior of a cabinet actually controlled by Tehran. Can the world’s leading states accept a Hezbollah-dominated administration in Beirut? The unfortunate answer is that there may be little they can do against it, at least enough to shake Nasrallah’s determination.

Worth reading the whole piece. And Michael J Totten:

Beirut is being cleverly reconquered by Damascus and Tehran, and is rejoining, against its will, the Iran-led Resistance Bloc.

Everybody in Lebanon needs to understand something: Israel is more likely than ever to target the entire country during the next round of conflict. Not since 1948 has Israel fought a war against the Lebanese government; its wars in Lebanon have always been waged against terrorist organizations that were beyond the control of the state.

But if Hezbollah leads the government, the government will be a legitimate target. That’s how it works. Regime-change in Lebanon would have been an insane policy with Hariri’s March 14 coalition in charge, but it won’t be if Hezbollah is calling the shots.

The next war will almost certainly be bloodier than the last.