Mick Hartley

More on the Trump deal, from Kenin Spivak at RealClearPolitics:

“The current Iranian leadership are very rational people. They are nice to deal with, they are strong and smart people. They are not radicalized, and they are looking to help their country,” Trump said on Tuesday of leaders who he referred to as “wicked extremists” when announcing the commencement of Epic Fury.

Really? That’s embarrassing. They’ve really played him for a fool.

Like Obama’s much-maligned (by Trump, among others) deal, the MOU contemplates no limits on Iran’s ballistic missile program or support for its terror network. The parties will immediately cease hostilities, and Israel, which is not a party, is directed to permanently terminate defending itself in Lebanon against Hezbollah’s aggression. The U.S. will immediately end the blockade, and Iran agrees to allow ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz “with no charge for 60 days only.” Iran, which did not previously charge ships transiting the Strait, likely will begin doing so after that period.

Iran commits to “never procure or develop” nuclear weapons, and agrees that its enriched uranium will, at a minimum, be down-blended on site. Other issues regarding Iran’s “nuclear needs” will be settled in the final agreement. It is expected that Iran will continue its civilian nuclear program, ensuring that it remains capable of weaponization. Until a final agreement is signed, “Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program … and the United States will not deploy additional forces in the region.” The U.S. undertakes to remove its forces from the “proximity of Iran” within 30 days after a final agreement is signed.

The chances of Iran complying with any restriction on their nuclear program are, of course, somewhere round about zero.

Iran will have all the funds it requires to rebuild its military and resume its terror campaign. Regardless of whether the final deal is ever reached, it may immediately resume oil exports and the U.S. will waive related sanctions. The U.S. also will immediately make “fully available” to any beneficiary designated by Iran all frozen and restricted funds, estimated to be at least $24 billion. Following execution of a final agreement, the U.S. will phase out all remaining sanctions and implement a “mutually agreed plan” with “at least” $300 billon for Iran’s “reconstruction and economic development.”

The MOU is silent about verification and enforcement. While the final agreement may describe these mechanisms, Iran has shown it can withstand stringent sanctions and 15,000 bombs and missiles. There is little risk that a future president would repeat, let alone exceed, that level of force. Iran’s compliance is discretionary…..

Measured against Trump’s goals, Iran won. It bested Trump at public relations, negotiations and tactics, losing only in the military sphere. With hundreds of billions of dollars at its disposal, it will soon recover. After taking that money, Iran will quietly ignore the restrictions, secure in the knowledge that it can outlast economic sanctions and that it is unlikely to confront a military challenge that its new weapons won’t help it defeat.

The U.S. and Israel were on the verge of complete victory. If Trump had stayed the course, he likely would have achieved the unconditional surrender he coveted. Instead, he choked.

Not sure if they were on the verge of complete victory, but yes, this is about the worst possible outcome.