Mick Hartley

Politics and Culture

recent posts

email me

  • A tragedy of misallocation

    Robert Hutton at The Critic:

    Although farming is often reported to be in crisis, Britain is actually full of people who know how to make a fortune from it. Unfortunately, due to a tragedy of misallocation, all those people live in London and are busy on social media, and so the farming has to be done by people who are apparently too stupid to understand that they’re vastly rich, even when it’s been repeatedly explained to them by their betters.

  • International diplomatic failures over Israel and Lebanon

    After a war it's normally understood that the victor will determine the peace conditions. That may be a transfer of land, or reparations payments, but at the very minimum it requires the defeated party to abandon its aims and accept the victor's terms. Except for Israel, that is. Israel keeps winning wars, but the defeated Arabs are never pressured to abandon their aims, or accept Israel's existence. It's just a question, for them, of waiting till the next time.

    Or, as Shany Mor at UnHerd puts it, "any party that launches a war against Israel and is then defeated is entitled to a restoration of the conditions it violently rejected when launching the war":

    Across the West, diplomats and experts have settled on a consensus for solving the ongoing Arab-Israeli war — one that reveals exactly why international diplomatic efforts have consistently failed. At its core, this approach focuses on restoring the very ceasefire conditions which Lebanon and Hezbollah violated last year, while avoiding any mention of even the desirability of peace — something Lebanon would benefit from more than any other party. In failing to recognise this, our international diplomats embody all the pathologies and failures that have come to define their contribution to this decades-long conflict.

    According to the Quai d’Orsay and the State Department, the formula for ending the war merely requires punching in the four-digit PIN code 1701. That, of course, is UN Security Council resolution 1701, the one that ended the last war back in 2006. The resolution included several clear obligations for all parties. Israel was to withdraw from Lebanese territory. Hezbollah was to move all its forces north of the Litani River, creating a buffer zone where the only permitted armed forces would be those of the UN peacekeeping force (UNIFIL) and the Lebanese Army (LFA). UNIFIL was to monitor and enforce these deployments. And Hezbollah was supposed to be decommissioned as an armed force inside sovereign Lebanese territory.

    The first measure, Israeli withdrawal, was implemented within days of the resolution’s passage. The others were not. Once Israel’s withdrawal was complete, UNIFIL announced that it had no intention of enforcing 1701, and over the course of the next 17 years, Hezbollah assembled an arsenal of rockets and missiles. It also built a network of tunnels that were supposed to allow it, in a future war, to “conquer the Galilee” in an operation similar to the one Hamas ultimately launched hundreds of kilometres away in southern Israel.

    The day after Hamas’s assault on southern Israel on October 7 last year, Hezbollah began firing rockets on northern Israel, forcing the rapid evacuation of border communities comprising nearly 100,000 residents, most of whom have yet to return home. After 11 months of low-intensity warfare, Israel took the initiative, and in 11 days managed to deal Hezbollah a decisive blow.

    On 17 and 18 September, exploding pagers and walkie-talkies disabled the militia’s communications network, taking thousands of fighters out of commission. Over the next week, a series of airstrikes based on precise intelligence destroyed the majority of Hezbollah’s rockets and launchers and eliminated key military commanders. Finally, on 27 September, an Israeli airstrike on a bunker in Beirut killed nearly every senior figure in the organisation, including its voluble leader Hassan Nasrallah. This was followed by a ground invasion which has seen tunnels and munitions, prepared over a decade and more, destroyed with huge losses to Hezbollah and minimal losses to the IDF.

    However, the 11-day campaign woke up the international community in a way that 11 months of rocket fire did not. And the unanimous response has been an urgent call for implementation of 1701. David Lammy called for a “political solution in line with Resolution 1701”. The French ambassador to the UN called upon Israel “to stop the escalation underway in Lebanon” and reiterated Frances determination for a cessation of hostilities “in accordance with Resolution 1701”. Hours before the successful operation to kill Nasrallah, the US, Canada, Australia, Canada and a host of European and Arab states issued a joint declaration demanding an immediate 21-day cease “to provide space for diplomacy towards the conclusion of a diplomatic settlement consistent with UNSCR 1701”.

    This consensus around the indeterminate and obsolete Security Council resolution tells, in short, the entire story of the failure to resolve this conflict. If there is one thread running through nearly every diplomatic effort of the last eight decades, it is a firm commitment to the idea that any party that launches a war against Israel and is then defeated is entitled to a restoration of the conditions it violently rejected when launching the war.

    This unspoken normative commitment explains the iterations of final status plans presented to the Palestinian leadership after its rejection of statehood at Camp David and subsequent suicide bombing campaign of the early 2000s. It explains the insistence on pre-1967 armistice lines as the only legal basis for Israel’s border after 1967. It explains the curious exception to that norm regarding the refusal to recognise even the pre-1967 part of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. And it explains the cruel human experiment known as UNRWA, a refugee agency that, unlike any other refugee agency, exists not to rehabilitate refugees but rather to keep them in a permanent state of immiseration to maintain an irredentist claim against another country.

    Such a norm has not featured in the post-war mediation of any other conflict, not before 1945 and not since. No one has ever seriously suggested creating a kind of sportsman’s mulligan as an international diplomatic norm for other conflicts for this very reason. It’s not hard to see why this might be the case. If the international community extended a line of insurance to other aggressors, which promised that launching wars could bring gains with victory but no losses with defeat, there would be a lot more wars….

    Just before the US election, France hosted an “International Conference in Support of Lebanon’s People and Sovereignty”, where $1 billion in aid was pledged and where French President Macron claimed Israel was “sowing barbarism”. If there was any suggestion that Lebanon’s situation might have been improved by not firing rockets into Israel for the past 11 months, the participants were too polite to mention it. Nor was there any reckoning with Lebanon’s decision to cultivate an alternative armed force, larger than its own military, implicated in atrocities in Syria, and answerable to the Islamic Republic of Iran. The insistence of global actors, most notably the host country itself, on protecting Hezbollah and securing for it advantageous ceasefire arrangements in previous wars in 1996 and 2006 also went unmentioned.

    Where Israel is concerned – where Jews are concerned – the normal diplomatic rules don't apply.

  • Lynchburg station

    John Vachon, March 1943. "Lynchburg, Virginia — railroad station."

    image from www.shorpy.com
    [Photo: Shorpy/John Vachon for the Office of War Information]

  • Kindness

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In full:

    I hope people hear the word “kindness” and realize the kindness is very selective. The plea is blatant emotional manipulation: It means: * please “muster kindness” for the men and boys who want to compete in women’s and girls’ sport – and not for the women and girls who are disadvantaged. * please “muster kindness” for those who say earnestly that some kids are “born in the wrong body” and need drugs and surgery to “be their true selves” – but not for all the detransitioners, the confused teenage lesbians who expose this lie; nor for the desperate parents who are losing their children to a billion-dollar medical industry.:

    We see you. The “kindness” you advocate is claiming growing numbers of victims. More people are understanding this every day. Yes – and many of them are right there with you in the House. They know about your links to organizations like Gendered Intelligence.:

    It’s not about “kindness” – it’s about accepting a distorted, sexist, homophobic narrative – and it’s about power, control, and money. The best answer to that is just to say No.

    Sarah (Tim) MacBride is "the first openly transgender state senator in the country, she is the highest-ranking transgender elected official in United States history." A trans activist and friend of the Bidens…

  • A scenario contrary to what was anticipated

    Genevieve Gluck at Reduxx:

    An Argentinian man convicted of violence against women who was transferred into a women’s prison on the basis of his self-declared gender identity has raped and impregnated a female inmate while detained.

    Well, who could possibly have predicted that?

    Gabriel Fernández had been accused of violence by multiple former partners before changing his legal sex to female and renaming himself Gabriela Nahir Fernández in 2018. Last week it was revealed how, while serving a sentence related to a domestic abuse conviction, Fernández raped a female inmate in the women’s prison in Córdoba where he is housed, resulting in the victim becoming pregnant….

    A panel of judges at the Córdoba Chamber of Accusation has since ordered Fernández to be isolated from female inmates, calling the situation a “paradox” in the context of the nation’s gender self-identification laws.

    “Paradoxically, we find ourselves facing a scenario contrary to what was anticipated. That is, the accused, who perceives herself as a woman and belonging to the LGBTI group, is the one who turns her colleagues into victims or prey of her needs… taking advantage, of course, of the fact that she is housed in an establishment that would not be prepared for these exceptional cases, at least for the moment,” said the judges, referring to Fernández with feminine pronouns.

    A paradox indeed. 

    News of the sexual abuse prompted a response from Argentina’s Vice President, Victoria Villarruel. From her official account on X, the Villarruel strongly condemned gender identity ideology, and referred to its supporters as “degenerates.”

  • Banning “Zionist” customers

    Ireland once again – from the JC:

    An Irish publican has claimed his pub is enjoying “loads of business” after banning “Zionist” customers.

    The Celtic Marine Bar in Bundoran, a picturesque town on Ireland’s Atlantic coast popular with tourists, put up a sign last week week saying, “all Zionists are barred from The Celtic Marine Bar. Stop the genocide. Free Palestine.”

    The publican, Aaron Nealis, told the JC that the Zionist ban was bringing in “loads of business” and that locals “love it”. If any supporter of Israel tried to buy a pint of Guinness in his establishment, he added, he would “put them out”….

    The widow of a Jewish man who regularly visits Bundoran said the banner had left her “extremely upset”.

    In a complaint directed to the local tourism board, Sally Wickham wrote: “I usually enjoy visiting your lovely town. It is safe and welcoming and I love running or dog walking with my friends down the promenade at night. However, on my last visit, I was confronted by hate speech…

    “I refer to the giant banner on the Celtic Marine Bar Restaurant. If it said No Catholics, Muslims, etc, I am sure it would have been removed by now. I hope this does not reflect the true nature of your town and that you are not antisemitic.”

    Nealis insisted that he was not prejudiced against Jews. “Being anti-Zionist isn’t being antisemitic because Palestinians are semitic, Israeli Jews are not semitic,” he wrongly claimed.

    “They’re not from the Middle East,” he insisted. “Zionism isn’t Judaism. Zionism is a political movement.”

  • Jew hatred

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  • China and North Korea

    Yesterday I mentioned China's deteriorating relations with North Korea – a result of Pyongyang's increasing cooperation with Moscow, and the sending of troops to fight in Ukraine – and suggested that this could be a useful lever for the US. Here's an editorial today in South Korea's Chosun Ilbo – China's inaction on N. Korean provocations risks its own security:

    At the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru on Nov. 16, there were increasing calls for China to take on a greater role in curbing North Korea’s provocations, such as troop deployments to Russia. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol urged China to play a “constructive role,” to which Chinese President Xi Jinping responded that China does not wish for tensions on the Korean Peninsula and would cooperate with Yoon in addressing the issue. U.S. President Joe Biden stressed that China should use its influence to prevent further North Korean troop deployments, warning that deepening North Korea-Russia ties could heighten provocations. Xi reiterated that China would not tolerate threats to its strategic security and core interests.

    All talk, but no concrete action. China is in a bind over North Korea – a wayward son that they've been protecting for years, fast becoming a real liability.

    Despite North Korean provocations, China has continued to shield Pyongyang while expanding economic ties with Russia following the Ukraine invasion. As North Korea-Russia military cooperation now threatens China’s own security, Beijing bears significant responsibility for this situation.

    Following North Korea’s sixth nuclear test and ballistic missile (ICBM) launch in 2017, China supported a UN resolution to impose automatic sanctions, including restricting oil imports if further tests occurred. It also agreed to expel North Korean workers. Over 96% of North Korea’s trade depends on China, including key materials for its nuclear and missile programs. Money laundering and cryptocurrency cash-outs to fund North Korean weapons development largely occur in China, with wages of tens of thousands of North Korean workers in China serving as a major income source for Kim Jong-un. If China had fully enforced international sanctions, much of North Korea’s provocations could have been curbed.

    China has long used North Korea to counter U.S. influence but does not want tensions on the Korean Peninsula to escalate beyond control. However, the North Korea-Russia alliance, with North Korean troops deployed to Ukraine, directly undermines China’s core interests. If China wishes to address this, it only needs to enforce the UN sanctions it has already agreed to.

    The answers are there, if the right pressure can be applied. Though the likelihood of Trump being astute enough to apply that pressure is, I'd say, on the low side. 

  • Cannon fodder

    A North Korean defector talks to the Daily NK about the grim reality of life for NK soldiers sent to Russia – and his belief that Pyongyang "doesn’t want a single soldier coming back alive from the battlefield":

    There have been multiple reports about North Korean troops in Russia suffering casualties during engagements with Ukrainian troops. Some are arguing that the North Korean troops in Russia amount to cannon fodder and that the North Korean authorities do not want them to return alive.

    “There’s a possibility that soldiers currently on deployment to Russia didn’t even know where they were headed until right before they left the country,” said a North Korean defector identified as Chung (a pseudonym) in a recent interview with Daily NK. Prior to his defection, Chung was a soldier who had been sent to Russia to work at a construction site.

    “When North Korean soldiers are sent to work on construction sites in Russia, their overseas missions are referred to as ‘deployments,’ not ‘assignments’ inside the North Korean military. The soldiers themselves aren’t officially informed about their place of deployment until shortly before they depart,” Chung said.

    Based on his personal experience, Chung said that soldiers deployed to the war zone may have been chosen by the military, without getting any say in the matter….

    According to Chung, even crack troops trained in the special forces are likely to become cannon fodder if they are actually sent to the battlefield.

    “Even if we’re talking about elite special forces with the Storm Corps, all their training was done in mountainous areas, but the current fighting in Russia is taking place on wide-open plains. I doubt that even the North Korean government expects much combat proficiency from the soldiers it’s deploying to Russia,” he said.

    “North Korea doesn’t want a single soldier coming back alive from the battlefield. The leadership will think that returning soldiers aren’t helpful for maintaining the regime since they may tell others the truth about what they experienced, which would stir up negativity about the regime,” Chung remarked.

  • In Berlin

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    From the Telegraph:

    Jews and gay people should hide their identity in parts of Berlin with large Arab populations, the German capital’s police chief has warned.

    “There are areas of the city, we need to be perfectly honest here, where I would advise people who wear a kippah or are openly gay to be more careful,” said Barbara Slowik.

    “There are certain neighbourhoods where the majority of people of Arab origin live, who also have sympathies for terrorist groups,” she said, adding that they were often “openly hostile towards Jews”.