Mick Hartley

Yesterday I mentioned China's deteriorating relations with North Korea – a result of Pyongyang's increasing cooperation with Moscow, and the sending of troops to fight in Ukraine – and suggested that this could be a useful lever for the US. Here's an editorial today in South Korea's Chosun Ilbo – China's inaction on N. Korean provocations risks its own security:

At the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru on Nov. 16, there were increasing calls for China to take on a greater role in curbing North Korea’s provocations, such as troop deployments to Russia. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol urged China to play a “constructive role,” to which Chinese President Xi Jinping responded that China does not wish for tensions on the Korean Peninsula and would cooperate with Yoon in addressing the issue. U.S. President Joe Biden stressed that China should use its influence to prevent further North Korean troop deployments, warning that deepening North Korea-Russia ties could heighten provocations. Xi reiterated that China would not tolerate threats to its strategic security and core interests.

All talk, but no concrete action. China is in a bind over North Korea – a wayward son that they've been protecting for years, fast becoming a real liability.

Despite North Korean provocations, China has continued to shield Pyongyang while expanding economic ties with Russia following the Ukraine invasion. As North Korea-Russia military cooperation now threatens China’s own security, Beijing bears significant responsibility for this situation.

Following North Korea’s sixth nuclear test and ballistic missile (ICBM) launch in 2017, China supported a UN resolution to impose automatic sanctions, including restricting oil imports if further tests occurred. It also agreed to expel North Korean workers. Over 96% of North Korea’s trade depends on China, including key materials for its nuclear and missile programs. Money laundering and cryptocurrency cash-outs to fund North Korean weapons development largely occur in China, with wages of tens of thousands of North Korean workers in China serving as a major income source for Kim Jong-un. If China had fully enforced international sanctions, much of North Korea’s provocations could have been curbed.

China has long used North Korea to counter U.S. influence but does not want tensions on the Korean Peninsula to escalate beyond control. However, the North Korea-Russia alliance, with North Korean troops deployed to Ukraine, directly undermines China’s core interests. If China wishes to address this, it only needs to enforce the UN sanctions it has already agreed to.

The answers are there, if the right pressure can be applied. Though the likelihood of Trump being astute enough to apply that pressure is, I'd say, on the low side.