Mick Hartley

Yaakov Lappin at the JC on Syria and the Druze killings. How much influence does Syrian president Ahmad al-Sharaa have over events in Sweida? Is he revealing his true face, or did things just spiral out of control?

Meir Ben-Shabbat, former Israeli national security adviser and head of the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, told JNS: “The events in Syria provided the whole world with an opportunity to see again what Jolani's [al-Sharaa’s nom de guerre] 'base' looks like.”

Ben-Shabbat, who also headed Israel's National Security Council, added: “Why is this important? Because even those who believe he has abandoned the path of jihad and chosen the path of statesmanship now understand that Jolani cannot persist for long in a direction that is 180 degrees opposite to his 'base.'"

It is "difficult to assume" that the jihadists surrounding al-Sharaa "have abandoned the vision of establishing an extremist Sunni religious state in the state of A-Sham [greater Syria]," he continued. "It is more likely that they have come to the realisation that it is worthwhile to let Jolani play the West's game to establish his rule and begin to rehabilitate Syria, and then return to the original path from a position of strength.

"It is hard to estimate how and when this will happen, but it is a scenario that must be before the eyes of anyone dealing with the option of political arrangements with Syria.”…

“The takeover of this region by extremist Sunni elements could allow the establishment of hostile elements and jihadist terrorists near the border and across the entire southern Syrian Golan.

"Israel's intervention was intended to send a clear message: there will be no change in the balance of power in the southern Syria region without Israel's consent, nor will there be a deployment of capabilities that could threaten Israel within a distance determined by it (in other words: defining a demilitarised zone).”

Ben-Shabbat placed the events in a wider regional context, identifying Turkey and Qatar as the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood axis who are seeking to fill the vacuum left by the collapse of the Iranian-led Shi’ite axis.

On the other hand…

However, Professor Eyal Zisser, vice rector of Tel Aviv University and a chair of contemporary history of the Middle East, offered a different interpretation of events.

“I do not think he [al-Sharaa] revealed any particular character; this was an event that got out of control,” Zisser told JNS. “But it is clear, firstly, that he does not have full control in the territory over all elements, including elements that are supposedly under his authority. Secondly, this is a regime with an Islamic conception according to which minorities are not really welcome – incidentally, this is exactly the case in Saudi Arabia or the Emirates, where non-Sunni Muslim minorities are not welcome.”

He added: “The Israeli intervention complicated the situation, but still, the interest of Israel and also of the Syrian regime, and certainly of the United States, is stability – and for this, it is necessary to cooperate, even if tactically, and to talk.”…

The Druze in Sweida and southern Syria "do not want Israeli patronage – none of them asked for such patronage, and they emphasise that they see themselves as Syrian citizens, because they know that there is no future for Israeli involvement in Syria, and that it will only entangle Israel in the internal conflicts in Syria," he said.

"Sweida is more than a hundred kilometers from the border, so what's the idea, that we will conquer all of southern Syria, where there are a million Syrian Sunni Arabs, and risk a guerrilla war?”

Interesting. The nightmare complications of a Jewish state in the middle of a Muslim world. One step forward with the Abraham Accords – then October 7th. One step forward with the downfall of the Assad regime – only for the Sunni militants to rise up and take over. One step forward with the almost-destruction of Iran's terror proxies and Tehran's humbling, only for Turkey and Qatar to take up the reins in the anti-Israel crusade. 

Meanwhile, in the West, antisemitism is reaching grim new levels not seen since the 1930s, demonstrating once again why Israel is so desperately needed as a Jewish homeland….