Mick Hartley

A useful BBC report from Mina Al-Lami:

Syrian rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani has dropped that nom de guerre associated with his jihadist past, and been using his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in official communiques issued since Thursday, ahead of the fall of President Bashar al-Assad.

This move is part of Jawlani's effort to bolster his legitimacy in a new context, as his Islamist militant group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), leading other rebel factions, announces the capture of the Syrian capital, Damascus, solidifying its control over much of the country.

Jawlani's transformation is not recent, but has been carefully cultivated over the years, evident not only in his public statements and interviews with international outlets but also in his evolving appearance.

Once clad in traditional jihadist militant attire, he has adopted a more Western-style wardrobe in the past years. Now, as he leads the offensive, he has donned military fatigues, symbolising his role as the commander of the operations room….

Jawlani's journey as a jihadist began in Iraq, linked to al-Qaeda through the Islamic State (IS) group's precursor – al-Qaeda in Iraq and, later, the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI).

After the 2003 US-led invasion, he joined other foreign fighters in Iraq and, in 2005, was imprisoned at Camp Bucca, where he enhanced his jihadist affiliations and later on was introduced to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the quiet scholar who would later go on to lead IS.

In 2011, Baghdadi sent Jawlani to Syria with funding to establish al-Nusra Front, a covert faction tied to ISI. By 2012, Nusra had become a prominent Syrian fighting force, hiding its IS and al-Qaeda ties….

To reshape his image, Jawlani actively engaged with the public, visiting displacement camps, attending events, and overseeing aid efforts, particularly during crises like the 2023 earthquakes.

HTS highlighted achievements in governance and infrastructure to legitimise its rule and demonstrate its ability to provide stability and services.

It has previously praised the Taliban, upon their return to power in 2021, lauding them as an inspiration and a model for effectively balancing jihadist efforts with political aspirations, including making tactical compromises to achieve their goals.

Jawlani's efforts in Idlib reflected his broader strategy to demonstrate HTS's ability not only to wage jihad but also to govern effectively….

Jawlani and the SG have since reassured domestic and international audiences.

To Syrians, including minorities, they promised safety; to neighbours and powers like Russia, they pledged peaceful relations. Jawlani even assured Russia its Syrian bases would remain unharmed if attacks ceased.

This shift reflects HTS's "moderate jihad" strategy since 2017, emphasising pragmatism over rigid ideology.

Jawlani's approach could signal the decline of global jihad movements like IS and al-Qaeda, whose inflexibility is increasingly seen as ineffective and unsustainable.

His trajectory might inspire other groups to adapt, marking either a new era of localised, politically flexible "jihadism" or just a temporary divergence from the traditional path in order to make political and territorial gains.

I'm going for "just a temporary divergence" from the traditional jihad path – to seize power and gain international approval. But yes, of course, it's a huge moment for Syria to see the back of the Assad regime and the prisons being emptied and thousands of Syrians returning to their homes. So giving the new rulers some benefit of the doubt after the years of Assad brutality is entirely reasonable. But…

The main backers of the new Syrian government will be Turkey, it seems. So, expect serious assaults on the Syrian Kurds. Which, according to the Jerusalem Post, have already begun:

Representatives of the Syrian Kurds have recently appealed to Israeli officials via various communications channels seeking assistance and protection.

This comes as the regime of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad was crumbling, and the country was taken over by Islamist rebels.

Earlier today, Turkish-backed Syrian rebels announced that they had begun attacking Kurdish forces in the Manbij area in northern Syria, northeast of Aleppo.

Israel, which views the Kurdish community as a friendly and Western-oriented entity, has been working with Western countries since the beginning of the current campaign to ensure the security of the Kurds within the emerging new reality in Syria.

The current situation, including the victory of Sunni jihadists and the intensification of the civil war, creates security and political uncertainty.