Mick Hartley

Lawrence Freedman's latest, on Putin the Fanatic:

As I have argued many times in these posts, Russia’s inability thus far to achieve its objectives and so win the war is not the same as a Ukrainian victory. Ukraine has lost a lot and continues to do so. It has suffered mightily. A cease fire based on the current lines of contact would be seen in Kyiv as a defeat because it would leave sovereign territory occupied, with those trapped inside subject to harsh measures and ‘Russification’. But it would hardly be a victory for Russia which would be left with ruined, depopulated territory, full of unexploded ordnance, with a demanding internal security situation, a long border to defend, and a hostile government in Kyiv working to get into the EU and NATO. For this Russia has sacrificed hundreds and thousands of people – dead, wounded, and living abroad. Economic activity and industrial production is now geared to the war effort, with little left for public amenities or productive investment. It has lost its European energy markets, become a junior partner to China, and depends on Iran and North Korea for armaments…

Because Kyiv’s defiance was intolerable to Putin he wished it to be quelled by the full-scale invasion. When instead of subjugation Kyiv remained as defiant as ever, the Ukrainian government was subjected to even more evidence-free denunciations, with drug addiction and a variety of personality disorders thrown in for good measure. Still more defiance and Ukraine was elevated into a civilizational threat, marked by decadence bordering on paganism. When this was not enough, and it became necessary to explain why mighty Russia could not overcome a smaller and inferior power, the role of NATO, and especially the US and the UK, was highlighted. And once these were identified as the real enemies then the whole struggle acquired an existential aspect.

All those aspects of the Western way of life that Putin despises must now be banished from Russia. This goes beyond crushing political dissent and the propagation of patriotic and militaristic themes, but also an assertion of the superiority of Russian civilisation. Those wanting to see where this has led might consult a document released by the Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate, for approval by the World Russian People’s Council in Moscow on 27/28 March. This affirmed that Russia is fighting a ‘holy war.’ This is presented as an imperialist project, to create an expanded homeland for all Russian people, including the sub-groups of Belarussians and Ukrainians, where their culture and spirituality will be honoured, and also as a defensive struggle against the ‘globalism’ and ‘satanism’ that has gripped the West.

An imperialist project to create an expanded homeland. I think we've been here before.

If ever an argument was needed against unchecked autocracy Putin’s Russia provides it. Continuing failure to achieve his objectives has only aggravated his fanaticism. The problem is not that he is irrational but the way that he has framed his Ukraine problem obliges him to act in ever more unreasonable ways, because to do otherwise would require giving in to forces that challenge his idea of the Russian nation and what is stands for. Over a decade he has managed to turn an inconvenient aspect of Ukraine’s foreign policy into an existential threat. He will stick with a war without end because he dare not admit that it was folly to launch it in the first place. So the war machine must be fed with all available people and resources, independent and critical thought must be suppressed, and Ukrainians must be punished for their insubordination with ever more devastation and cruelty.