Mick Hartley

The Iranian regime, at least, is happy:

The nearly-complete capture of Aleppo by Syrian forces shows that Iran, a key sponsor and military supporter of the Syrian regime, is the “top player” in the Middle East, an Iranian general boasted Wednesday.

More analysis from Richard Spencer in the Times (£):

The battle for Syria has been a tough one for Iran. Once, Tehran denied military involvement. Recently, it admitted saving President Assad had cost it more than 1,000 men and a dozen senior officers, buried with full military honours.

After all that blood, it is not to be denied its prize, recapturing Aleppo. Nor will it let Russia take centre stage, however grateful it is for Moscow’s diplomatic and military cover.

This is the only obvious explanation for the cruelty and mayhem inflicted on the people of Aleppo yesterday, instead of the ceasefire and evacuation promised the day before.

On Tuesday, Russia and Turkey had come to a deal for the city’s future, but it seems they only informed Damascus and Tehran after details had leaked out. Neither were amused, and sure enough the troops on the ground, all under the command of one or the other, made sure the evacuation did not happen. Shells rained on civilians lined up to take the buses to safety. Scores were killed.

There is no point in making sacrifices unless you are prepared to press the point home. So it is with Iran. “The new American president must accept the reality that Iran is the leading power in the region,” Yahya Safavi, foreign policy adviser to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said.

If Iran is the leading power, one has to ask if the Russian leadership is as smart as it is portrayed. The speed with which it forged Tuesday’s deal to allow the rebels to surrender in return for a safe exit was breathtaking. There was no shuttling backwards and forwards between Geneva, Damascus and Tehran, or the sort of attention to minutiae that has won John Kerry, the US secretary of state, a million air miles but no progress in four years.

That may have been Moscow’s intention. The US was consciously excluded from the talks, which were solely with the rebels’ chief local backer, Turkey. There was just one flaw. Neither Tehran nor Damascus has an interest in Russia being an alternative imperial power. Russia is useful, but its friendship is ambiguous….

From now on, deals will not happen without the supreme leader’s approval.