Sudan is one of the few regimes to have escaped the ripples of the Arab Spring…so far:
Sudan could see the next Arab revolution because anger is rising over an economic crisis and government repression worse than in Egypt before the ousting of Hosni Mubarak, an opposition leader said on Monday.
“The regime is doomed … We as opposition agreed that it cannot be reformed. You need to change, to overthrow the regime,” said Farouk Abu Issa, head of the National Consensus Forces, an umbrella group of Sudan’s main opposition parties.
Sudan has seen a series of small protests in the capital Khartoum and the undeveloped east against sharp rises in food prices.
Many demonstrators say they have been inspired by “Arab Spring” uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia but have been quickly dispersed by security forces.
Veteran President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir has been battling a severe economic crises since South Sudan took most of the oil production — the lifeline of the economy — when it split away as an independent country in July, as agreed under a 2005 peace deal.
The crisis has been exacerbated by fighting with rebels in southern border states and the western region of Darfur, draining resources at a time when the state needs to cut expenditure. Inflation hit 19.8 percent in October.
Issa went into exile in Cairo after Bashir seized power in 1989 and has become a prominent opposition figure since his return.
He was briefly detained last month after officials said he was trying to organize protests with foreign aid, charges he denies.
“The ruling party says Sudan is not affected by the Arab Spring. How can Sudan be an exception? Sudan is a stronger candidate (than Egypt and Tunisia were),” Abu Issa said in an interview.
“The volume of corruption is much worse than in countries that have seen a revolution, be it Tunisia or Egypt. A small number of people benefit from a large budget,” he said.
“Regarding the repression, lack of respect of human rights, restrictions of other political rights Sudan is the worst. In Egypt there were some rights … Here there is no rule of law. Here judges follow the ruling party 100 percent,” he said.
President al-Bashir, though, will have a particularly strong motive to cling to power. The U.S. $9 billion that he's been accused of embezzling might have set him up nicely for a comfy retirement, but there is that small matter of the arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court on charges of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. A new government may feel that a clean break with the past would be the best way forward – including the handing over to international justice of their disgraced former president.
It's an unlikely scenario, admittedly. There can't be many in Khartoum who'd want to have the history of the Darfur genocide brought up for scrutiny in front of the whole world. Should Bashir find himself out of power, deals will likely be done. The new regime may want to submit him to its own judgement. Still, as we're finding out, the Arab world is always capable of surprising us.
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