Prof. Uzi Even of Tel Aviv University speculates that what the Isaelis bombed in Syria wasn’t, as is generally assumed, a nuclear reactor. It was “something far more vicious”: a facility for using already existing plutonium, from North Korea, to manufacture the final bomb (via Solomonia).

The official production capacity of the reaction in Yongbyon, which was fueled with enriched uranium, is 5 megawatts, but the experts estimate that in fact its capacity had been extended. Over the years, particularly during the period when North Korea was not under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), it produced plutonium from the nuclear fuel rods. U.S. intelligence estimates that even after the nuclear test conducted about a year ago (a test which failed), North Korea still has reserves of about 40 kilograms of plutonium, which is sufficient to produce 10 atom bombs. This plutonium is not under supervision, and North Korea could have concealed it in its laboratories or sold it to another country – Syria, for example…

Even’s questions relate to several substantive issues. First, in the reactor in Yongbyon, one can clearly see a chimney, which is necessary for the emission of the radioactive gases (incidentally, based on the emission of the gases experts can determine the capacity of the reactor). In the satellite photos of the structure in Syria there is no chimney…

No less strange in his opinion is the fact that the “reactor” did not have cooling towers. The pumping station seen in the photos, 5 kilometers from the site, cannot, according to him, be a substitute for such towers. “A structure without cooling towers cannot be a reactor,” he says, pointing to the satellite photo from Yongbyon, in which one can clearly see the cooling tower, with steam rising from it.

Another structure essential for a reactor is missing from the Syrian photos: a plutonium separation facility. As mentioned, the reactor is fueled by enriched uranium of fuel rods, which undergo a process of radiation. In order to turn them into plutonium, they have to be processed chemically in a plutonium separation facility.

And there is an additional question. If this was, in fact, a nuclear reactor, whose construction was not completed, clearly it would have taken the Syrians several years until they were able to operate it and produce plutonium. Why was Israel in a rush to attack a reactor that was under construction, years before it would have become operational? Was it willing to risk an all-out war with Syria because of a reactor in stages of construction? (A war Israel was afraid would erupt last summer, even without any connection to the nuclear issue.) This is very unlikely…

All these explanations and others lead Even to believe that what was destroyed was not a nuclear reactor. If this is the case, what was the purpose of the structure?

“In my estimation this was something very nasty and vicious, and even more dangerous than a reactor,” says Even. “I have no information, only an assessment, but I suspect that it was a plant for processing plutonium, namely a factory for assembling the bomb.”

In other words, Syria already had several kilograms of plutonium, and it was involved in building a bomb factory (the assembling of one bomb requires about four kilograms of fissionable material)…

What reinforces Even’s suspicion that the structure attacked in Syria was in fact a bomb assembly plant is the fact that the satellite photos taken after the bombing clearly show that the Syrians made an effort to bury the entire site under piles of earth. “They did so because of the lethal nature of the material that was in the structure, and that can be plutonium,” he said. That may also be the reason they refused to allow IAEA inspectors to visit the site and take samples of the earth, which would give away their secret.

As to why the Israeli government has kept quiet on this, well, you’ll have to read the rest of the article.

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4 responses to “Making the Bomb”

  1. Anon Avatar

    Interesting theory, but wouldn’t 4kg of plutonium scattered around the area be radioactive enough to be detected downwind of the site, as the admittedly much larger Chernobyl plume was ? What was the wind direction on the day of the attack ?

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  2. DaninVan Avatar
    DaninVan

    I was wondering about that myself, Anon. I don’t think there’s been any mention of whether the facility was complete and fully functioning(?)…
    Perhaps the plutonium, in its entirety, hadn’t been delivered to the site yet? Or was still secure for some other reason?
    Give Israel some credit here; wind speed and direction must have been taken into account before giving the final go for the mission.

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  3. dearieme Avatar
    dearieme

    His argument about the absence of a cooling tower sounds bogus to me.

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  4. dearieme Avatar
    dearieme

    The other thing to remember is that a uranium bomb is easy to make. The difficult bit is separating the uranium isotope that you want. That’s why it was a bit of a bugger that the Pakistani chap stole the centrifuge design (and, allegedly, bits) from Urenco. Separating plutonium is much easier – it’s a different element, so you just have to do some chemistry. But making the bomb from plutonium is much harder.

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