I wasn’t planning another post on the Iranian captives, but the news that they’re being allowed to sell their stories is going to prolong the controversy anyway.

What strikes me now, as all the media pundits reflect on the lessons to be learned etc. etc., is how widespread the view is within the commentariat that the Iranians ran rings around us, that they humiliated us, that they’re all tactical geniuses compared to our stupid dithering leaders, that Ahmadinejad strengthened his hand, and so on and on. Andrew Sullivan in the Sunday Times is fairly typical: “Deal or no hostage deal, Tehran shows it has the West taped”.

I don’t believe this for a moment. We’ll maybe never know exactly what happened in Iran’s top circles, and why they did what they did, but to assume that it was all part of a brilliantly conceived scheme which went exactly according to plan seems ludicrously improbable to me.

What’s funny is that much of this is coming from those same commenters who decry the West’s loss of faith in itself when it confronts tyranny, with so many only too ready to blame the West for bringing it on ourselves. Yet here we are, dealing in a civilised and diplomatic fashion with a gross abuse of the Geneva Conventions, and all we hear is that it was our fault: the sailors should have been more defiant; the Navy should have prepared them better; the politicians should have been tougher. And didn’t those clever Iranians play a blinder?

It’s not the behaviour of the captives which will have made the Iranians think they’ve won a propaganda victory – everyone knows they weren’t speaking freely. What’ll be cheering them up no end is the way the Westerm media are now doing the job for them.

In the circumstances, though I find the decision to allow the captives to sell their stories unwise and more than a little tacky, I can understand the thinking. If newspapers are trying to push the stories, at least they’ll be forced to present them in a sympathetic light.

Update: and here, right on cue, is Melanie Phillips:

The British marine hostage saga is a debacle of the first order – a grim parable of the degraded state to which Britain has now descended and an alarming portent for the free world in its fight to survive. Relief at the safe return of the 15 sailors, and the fact that we must always bear in mind that none of us knows how we would ourselves behave in such circumstances, cannot nevertheless mitigate the sickening realisation that the hostage fiasco is another terrible milestone in the west’s current suicidal trajectory of decadence and moral collapse….

Britain’s shame has been Iran’s gain. At a time of rising tension over the mortal threat posed by Iran to the free world, Britain handed it a victory which has strengthened it and made it even more of a threat. Britain’s strategic incompetence was matched by Iran’s flawless manipulation.

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16 responses to “Those Clever Iranians”

  1. dearieme Avatar
    dearieme

    The assumption that we have somehow been stuffed is probably just an assumption that Blair is weak and duplicitous i.e. that he’ll have given something important away and be lying about it. Since that is his default option.

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  2. Fabian from Israel Avatar

    Wasn’t an Iranian general abducted by the CIA released just recently? Didn’t the Iranians got that in exchange for releasing the British? I really want to know.

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  3. Dom Avatar
    Dom

    The idea seems to be this: If you kidnap people, and let them go, you should be praised. It’s like saying, if I shoot your mother, and miss, then I must be compasionate.
    What I found sickening were those photos of ImADinnerJacket and his circle, smiling as they “escorted” the servicemen out. Like it was all a lunch party.
    BTW, Sullivan has been pushing that line for some time now. I think he just writes when he has nothing to say.

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  4. Dom Avatar
    Dom

    Me again. Here’s what I mean: “Ambassador Rasoul Movahedian told the Financial Times newspaper that Iran had “showed our goodwill” by freeing the sailors.”
    Why didn’t the FT reporter say to him “It is not goodwill to release people you kidnapped. If it were, we would all do it.”

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  5. DaninVan Avatar
    DaninVan

    I’m still dithering on this. You have to admit, MH, that the Iranians executed their plan faultlessly. There was no hesitatation, and from a tactical pov it was inspired. The Allies have withdrawn from the waterway…at least from the ship inspection routine anyway…and the Iranians lost nothing.
    My position is still that there was a massive hole in the Allies’ defense planning and that demotions are in order. It just shouldn’t have happened.

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  6. DaninVan Avatar
    DaninVan

    Fabian; he wasn’t “abducted”, he and his family sought greener pastures. As I said the other day, he’ll undoubtedly show up at Disneyland, they ALL do eventually…:)

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  7. DaninVan Avatar
    DaninVan

    Just found this http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/ news source; now I’m REALLY depressed…

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  8. Richard Dell Avatar
    Richard Dell

    I listened to Any Questions and Any Answers this weekend. If you despair at the moonbats on CiF, then the nutters that the BBC switchboard chose to allow to propound on Any Answers will drive you round the bend, as if the multiple falsehoods uttered by Loony Benn on AQ were not enough. And Dimbleby just lets them rabbit on their deranged conspiracies, without ever correcting any obvious errors in facts. His father was a professional, but the sons are well past their sell-by date.

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  9. Richard Dell Avatar
    Richard Dell

    Dan – executing a plan faultlessly is one thing, but it was completely outside all international standards of normal behaviour. Suppose Britain were to intercept an Iranian airliner over the North Sea, force it down and then incarcerate its passengers and crew. I am sure even we we could manage to pull such a stunt off. But no one would ever trust us again, at least until those who organised it were locked up for a long time and profuse apologies and reparations were offered to Iran. Has Iran apologised to us? Do we expect them to?
    Sod “game plans”, and “faultless execution” – if we all behaved like this, free movement of goods, people and money would stop. The EU (all of it) should make it clear to Iran that any such future adventures will result in ALL financial agreements with Iran being terminated. Actions like this must have bad consequences.

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  10. Mick H Avatar
    Mick H

    DaninVan – no I don’t have to admit they executed their plan faultlessly, or that tactically it was inspired. Why give them that kudos? They kidnapped some British sailors, that’s all – presumably they’d been keeping an eye on these patrols and knew the kind of resistance they’d meet, ie not very much. Then, well, remember the changed coordinates they supplied? – now forgotten in the universal rush to glorify their tactical acumen.
    Of course I don’t know, but I’d be willing to bet that there was considerable disagreement in the Iranian government, with pressure being brought to bear on the Revolutionary Guards or whoever to end it as quick as possible and cut their losses. Iran met almost universal condemnation internationally; all they’d managed by way of a demonstration outside the British embassy in Tehran was a rent-a-mob of a couple of hundred. They’d shown they were willing to pull silly stunts like this at a time when they were trying to present themselves as a serious international force. I doubt very much that whoever masterminded the kidnapping expected the release to come so quickly, and with so few (as far as we know) concessions.
    What I do find plausible is there are those within the Iranian power structure who criticised the whole thing from the start, expected it to lead to a worsening perception of Iran internationally, and pushed for a speedy conclusion, who are now reading the US and British press reports and thinking, well, maybe we got it wrong. Maybe it was a good move after all. Look at the way the press there are saying we humiliated Britain, that we’re so clever, so skillful at this type of Machiavellian diplomacy…
    But this is all speculation…

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  11. Alan Potkin Avatar
    Alan Potkin

    Sorry, Mr Hartley, Melanie Phillips is spot on and your post today is an utter embarrassment.
    You cannot imagine how the UK’s prestige tanked amongst a considerable and influential segment, a minority to be sure, of American opinion. Why even bother to keep the Royal Navy commissioned any further?
    AP

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  12. DaninVan Avatar
    DaninVan

    Alan; that’s a bit over the top, but clearly ‘Queensbury Rules’ just won’t cut it. I don’t think anyone here has offered a logical explanation as to WHY Iran wasn’t considered hostile enough to warrant a tough tactical approach regarding these naval operations. Did it not occur to anyone that Iran might just decide to backup there border claims? For crissake both the US and Canada have done as much to each other over fishery claims out here on the Pacific Coast AND on the Atlantic over lobster fishing…and we’re FRIENDS!
    MH; didn’t the US force down a foreign jetliner, over the Med., that was carrying a wanted terrorist? Russia SHOT down a civilian jet which allegedly strayed over Soviet territory. Please, let’s not pretend that the Iranians don’t have plenty of ammo supporting their position. That’s my point; the eggheads at Defense thinktanks should have foreseen this play.
    Iran isn’t alone in the world, China is a pretty heavy ally and no slouch at brinkmanship.
    Richard noted “…but it was completely outside all international standards of normal behaviour”. See my short list of examples above. Attacking Pearl Harbour was an eggregious breach of International Standards. The US invasion of Panama, same…but hardly raised an eyebrow largely due to Noriega’s assinine posturing. Britain, France, and Israel’s invasion of the Suez http://novaonline.nvcc.vccs.edu/eli/evans/his135/Events/Suez56.htm was a wee bit over the line as well (I rooted for them and still hold the US to blame for interfering; talk about two faced!)
    The simple fact is that rules and standards only work if all parties are committed to making them work. Iran, N.Korea, Syria, China and myriad others have more to gain by defying those rules than by obeying them. There are no consequences.
    From that link in my previous comment this particular item http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=10799 would seem to suggest that the hardliners want to play this out. Slightly off topic, but the byline at the top of the article includes a “Chamberlain”…rather ironic.

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  13. DaninVan Avatar
    DaninVan

    Oops; left Russia off the heavy-hitter-axis list http://debka.com/headline.php?hid=4033
    My bad, as they say…

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  14. clazy Avatar
    clazy

    Mick,
    You’re making a very nice point that people on both sides of this debate could take to heart — I’m especially annoyed by those who somehow believe the hostage-taking and subsequent negotiating exemplify a Iranian subtlety develeloped over thousands of years of Persian history. How Oriental. But I don’t know how anyone can deny that, half-assed or not, the Iranians have humiliated the British. I think the Iranians have also damaged themselves in the process, but it’s hard to say how much. It would be easier to say, except the UN and the EU have — surprise, surprise — disgraced themselves again.
    Exaggerating Iran’s genius is a distraction from the most important element of this episode,the disgrace it revealed.

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  15. Incitatus Avatar
    Incitatus

    I think these folk should wait before drawing any conclusions about the cohesion of the Iranian state. My own feeling is that this particular act was perpetrated by the Revolutionary Guard independently of the backbone of the Iranian leadership (although certainly with the blessing of Ahmadinejad; I think they constitute his sole supporters right now). I’d bet the Iranian foreign service were pissing themselves with fear over the whole thing and hoping to sort it all out with Britain before Bush put his cowboy hat on again.
    Then again, this is probably all in my head.

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