Mick Hartley

Could Kim Jong-un be the next US target, after the killing of Iran’s Khamenei? In a word, no. The Daily NK talks to Ryu Hyun-woo, a former North Korean ambassador to Kuwait.

Is a U.S. operation to eliminate Kim Jong Un conceivable?

“The U.S. could remove Kim Jong Un, but the likelihood of actually carrying out such an operation is close to zero. The biggest reason is that there is no alternative force or figure inside North Korea capable of taking over after Kim is gone. In Iran’s case, there is at least a possibility of power transferring to a pro-American leadership. North Korea is different. It has maintained a dictatorship with no second-in-command and no political rival for decades. There is no opposition party. It is a society that rooted out dissent entirely to sustain the sole leadership system established under Kim Il Sung. If Kim Jong Un were removed, the center of leadership would simply vanish. North Korean society would almost immediately descend into chaos. You would see internal power struggles over who controls the state, and out of that instability millions of North Korean refugees would be generated. That is not just a problem inside North Korea. It fractures the security landscape of Northeast Asia as a whole, and China has no desire to see North Korea collapse.”

So the situation is fundamentally different from Iran?

“Exactly. In the Middle East, the U.S. has allies who can help manage the fallout from striking Iran: Israel, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE. Countries that can help Washington maintain a favorable regional order after the strikes. Northeast Asia is different. The U.S., China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan are all part of a balanced regional structure, and none of them wants to fracture that balance. On top of that, North Korea signed a mutual defense treaty with China in 1961 and concluded a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty with Russia in 2024. Both treaties contain provisions for automatic intervention by Russia and China in the event of a conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Iran has no equivalent agreements. That is why Kim Jong Un, even while feeling fear at the news of Khamenei’s killing, would also be exhaling with relief that he won’t end up in the same position.”….

Could the Iran war push North Korea and Iran closer together?

“Right now there is essentially no shared interest driving deeper North Korea-Iran cooperation. In the past, North Korea transferred missile technology to Iran. Today, Iran is ahead of North Korea in both drone and ballistic missile technology. North Korea has nothing to sell. North Korean nationals in Iran amount to embassy staff, a handful of traders, and a small number of Reconnaissance General Bureau personnel. Iran has a population of 90 million. It does not need North Korean labor. And Iran is a hard-nosed negotiator. The Persians are merchants by heritage. They calculate every transaction and will not accept a losing deal. North Korea knows this. What North Korea pursues across the Middle East is diplomatic support at international forums like the United Nations, a vote in its corner. The prospect of substantive economic or military cooperation is effectively zero.”