Mick Hartley

Shmuel Bar, Israeli researcher and former intelligence officer, interviewed at Quillette

Q: Some observers have described the Islamic Republic as an octopus that reached around with its tentacles for 47 years.

SB: Yes, but it has lost many of its arms. Hamas is out, or almost out. Hezbollah is almost out. The Houthis are on the ropes. The Iraqi militias are starting to look around inside Iraq. The Syrian regime is out. What do they have left? They can’t negotiate because nobody wants to negotiate with them. They can’t accept Trump’s ultimatum, which would basically say they were wrong for 47 years and that they give up. They will never do that.

Q: What does the future hold for Iran?

SB: The regime will start to crumble as the people within the IRGC and the army start to ask themselves, “What exactly are we doing here?” These are historic times. We’re talking about the emergence of a new world order. We don’t always realise when we are in the middle of that sort of change, but such a change is happening right now. The new world order is spearheaded by a combination of things, including the terrible condition of the Iranian economy and the huge mistake of launching the 7 October massacre. In Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, Muhammad Bin Salman is looking to forge a more Western-oriented and less religious country.