Mick Hartley

Some sensible words of caution on Iran, from Jawad Iqbal in the Spectator:

So, how will Iranians respond? The most obvious thing to point out is that it would be hard for people with no weapons to topple rulers who are armed to the teeth. Some Iranians with long memories might also cast their minds back to the first Gulf War (1990-91) during which the United States encouraged Iraqis to rise up against their leader Saddam Hussein. Saddam’s opponents eventually heeded the call, hoping to inflict defeat on a wounded regime. Saddam slaughtered thousands of those who took part and clung to power for another 12 years. The parallels with Iran are not exact: Khamenei is dead but Iranians would be right to worry that this is far from the end game for their hated rulers. Whoever – or whatever – replaces Khamenei might be even more bloodthirsty in seeking vengeance against those who rise up.

Other lessons from recent Iranian history offer little encouragement. Mass demonstrations, going as far back as the 1980s, have always been brutally crushed. During the most recent street protests, in December and January, thousands of protesters were shot and killed by the security forces. The forces of the regime will do whatever it takes to cling on to power, and killing those who stand in their way has become a norm….

The worry is that Trump will soon tire of this, or cut corners, or reach a “deal” with the Tehran regime involving large sums of oil money heading Donald’s way. Boots on the ground are needed. Is there any appetite for this? It’s unrealistic to expect the unarmed Iranian people to rise up against a weakened but still strong and utterly ruthless Islamist ruling class.