Mick Hartley

Jonathan Spyer in the Spectator – Israel is turning the screws on Hezbollah:

The killing of Lebanese Hezbollah military chief Haytham Ali Tababtabai by Israel this week reflects how much the balance of power between Jerusalem and the Iran-backed Shia Islamist group has shifted since the year-long war between the two in 2023 and 2024. Yet, paradoxically, Tabatabai’s killing also shows that nothing has been finally settled between the two enemies.

While Hezbollah has now been shown to be much weaker than Israel, it nevertheless remains stronger than any internal faction in Lebanon, including the official Lebanese government. The practical consequence of this is escalation: Hezbollah is seeking to repair and rebuild its capacities, no force in Lebanon is willing or able to stop this, and Israel, aware of Hezbollah’s intentions towards it, is determined to keep the organisation weak and possesses the capacity to do so. 

This dynamic reflects how much has changed in the Middle East over the last two years. Prior to last year, Lebanese Hezbollah was often referred to as the world’s most powerful non-state military actor. Pundits on sundry television channels would gravely intone that the organisation’s capacities outweighed those of many states. This is true: before 2024, Iran’s first and still primary proxy political-military group had enjoyed a three-decade run of near-constant forward motion.

But then Israel stepped in. Forced into action by October 7th, they realised that no one else was going to stop Hezbollah in their openly stated goal of destroying Israel: not the Lebanese government, not the UN, not the West. They had to do it themselves.

A central lesson of 7 October for the Jewish state is that seeking to achieve quiet through mutual deterrence with the armed Islamist militias on its borders is a fool’s errand. These organisations adhere to a religious and ideological outlook which trumps self-interest and pragmatism. They must therefore be kept physically weak. Since its achievements in the last months of 2024, Israel has been engaged in an active campaign to disrupt Hezbollah’s ability to rebuild its capacities. Around 350 of the organisation’s men have been killed in this process. Ali Haytham Tabatabai was the latest of them.  

The battle is not over.

A comment:

For almost a year, from 8th October 2023 onwards, Hezbollah fired a daily and nightly barrage of more than ten thousand missiles at civilian targets in Northern Israel, resulting in the long term evacuation of tens of thousands of Israeli citizens from their homes, schools, towns, villages, workplaces and kibbutzim. This war against Israel was completely ignored by the UK media and vast majority of the Western media, right up to the point, almost a year later, at which the Israelis eventually retaliated, leading to accusations in the media of the “aggressive Israelis” unfairly bombing civilian in Lebanon. The bias, prejudice and outright lies were staggering in their degree and consistency!

Hezbollah has been the dominant force in Lebanon for many years, with the Lebanese government and UNIFIL standing idly by, as the Iranian funded Hezbollah continued building huge underground launch sites on the Israeli border, contrary to the very Agreement UNIFIL were supposedly there to enforce. Indeed, by October 2023, UNIFIL had become no more than enthusiastic spectators, as Hezbollah launched their daily attacks on Israel, intervening only later to shoot down Israeli surveillance drones in the area. If neither the Lebanese government nor UNIFIL are able to govern in Lebanon and control Hezbollah, then it becomes not an Iran/Hezbollah war against Israel, but a Lebanese war, supported by the UN, and all sites in Lebanon are legitimate, just as the Lebanese deem all sites in Israel to be legitimate.

The Lebanese cannot seriously expect Lebanon to be used as a permanent launchpad for the attempted destruction of Israel and expect to survive.