Mick Hartley

There's a long piece in the Daily NK today on the subject of Kim Jong-un's daughter Kim Ju Ae, the non-appearance in public of his eldest son, and the question of succession. With the regular public appearance of the daughter with her father, the speculation has been that she's his chosen successor. The author here, Gil-sup Kwak, doesn't think so.

I have tried to keep a close eye on the movements of the North Korean royal family. My current theory on North Korea’s future succession is based on two things:

1. The North Korean succession system is set up so that only members of the Kim family can succeed each other in perpetuity.
2. In Korean society, children take the surnames of their fathers, so if Kim Ju Ae succeeds her father, her offspring (the fifth-generation heir) would lose the “Kim” family name.

Keeping these key factors in mind, I speculate that one of Kim Jong Un’s sons will eventually succeed him. There is no need to argue this point, it is simply a matter of when and how.

Also, of course, North Korea is a patriarchal society, and men have the power. A woman leader would be quite extraordinary.

There's a theory that, in fact, there is no eldest son – which would certainly explain why no one's ever seen him. The author thinks that's highly unlikely.

First, in patriarchal Confucian cultures ruled by hereditary succession, sons and grandchildren are often seen as symbols of marriage. Kim Jong Un married Ri Sol Jo in 2009. Similar to South Korea before the 1990s, couples typically have children immediately after marriage in North Korean culture. Additionally, North Koreans do not commonly use birth control. Therefore, if Kim Ju Ae (born in 2013) is their eldest child, it suggests that the Kims were childless for a significant period after their marriage. Considering that they have now had (a rumored) three children, the possibility of Ri Sol Ju or Kim Jong Un being infertile is low.

Secondly, the NIS’s own intelligence estimates contributed to my belief in the “unconfirmed eldest son theory.” Naturally, after his marriage to Ri Sol Ju, when the NIS weighed the possibility of the existence of the eldest son, South Korean intelligence likely considered a wide range of information. One key piece of evidence at the time was reports that the Secretariat (the department responsible for acquiring luxury goods for the Kim family from overseas) appeared to be purchasing childbirth and infant supplies.

Thirdly, it’s not logically sound to completely rule out the existence of a son based on Kim Ju Ae’s public behavior alone. A daughter is a daughter, and a son is a son. Kim’s daughter is a good symbol of youth, peace, and the future  (“Nuclear weapons are an all-purpose sword to be handed down to all generations”). She also has the unique advantage of portraying Kim Jong Un as a loving father figure while reinforcing the legitimacy of the Kim family’s perpetual succession. 

What if Kim Jong Un had brought a son with him instead of Ju Ae? Considering the spate of rumors surrounding Kim’s health, it would have been akin to “pouring gasoline onto a fire.”

A good point. Kim Jong-un, after all, is still relatively young. He should reckon on decades yet still in power. To bring his son along on publc outings would only fuel speculation about his health. And to see the son as a boy, small and weak, would not serve the image. Best to wait till he can be presented as a full-grown man – perhaps, in the spirit of Kim iconography, riding a white horse in muscular fashion to the summit of sacred Mt. Paektu.

To summarize, while Kim Jong Un suffers from morbid obesity and anxiety, we must not forget that at 39 years old, he is still a young leader. Based on the theory of succession, the nature of the North Korean political system, and past experience, I believe that Kim’s most logical successor will be his eldest son. If Kim Jong Un either did not have a son in 2010 or there is some sort of complication with his eldest son, the title of fourth-generation leader will be passed on to his son born in 2017. In this process, Kim Yo Jong, Kim’s emotional and political confidante, will likely act as the regime’s “libero” (a key player with no fixed position) as a manager of the Mt. Baekdu Bloodline and her brother’s political and emotional partner.

And the daughter, Kim Ju Ae, will probably take a role somewhat similar to that now played by Kim Yo Jong – a “libero” – to the new leader.

If  the regime survives that long…