Mick Hartley

In his latest Substack post, Lawrence Freedman confronts the point that's been obvious now for some while, but nevertheless hasn't been properly examined. Commentators left right and centre are full of advice to Ukraine and Zelensky about what they should do in terms of seeking a peace, negotiating, and so on and so forth – say they won't join NATO, forgo any claim to Crimea or the Donbas or wherever. But this is all meaningless given that Putin clearly has no interest in negotiations. For him any settlement will be a failure: only total victory is acceptable. The moment compromise is considered, or peace is declared without total Ukrainian submission, he's lost and his position becomes untenable.

For Putin the stakes are personal. This is his war and he has not hidden what he sought to achieve. Once it is impossible to deny failure then his judgement will be shown to be flawed and his position will become vulnerable. Put crudely for Putin to stay in power Russia needs to stay in the war.

His concern is not only that any conceivable deal will appear as a loss, but a deal that truly ends the fighting will be followed by a reckoning. So long as the war continues Putin is protected to a degree by patriotic urges to support the motherland when it is in peril, and also the opportunities war provides for censorship and tight control of all dissent. Without the war the consequences of his folly will be exposed. The legacy will not be expanded territory but instead a contracted economy, continued international isolation, a diminished reputation, and a multitude of disillusioned followers, bereaved families, and traumatised veterans with nothing to remember with pride….