Mick Hartley

North Korea is firing missiles like there's no tomorrow – which there very well may not be for them if they keep escalating. The only response to date has been a reciprocal escalation from the other side:

South Korea and the U.S. decided to extend massive aerial drills that were to end Friday after North Korea fired an intercontinental ballistic missile on Thursday morning.

Pak Jong-chon, the top military officer in North Korea, warned Thursday night that extending the air drills is a "huge mistake" and the situation is now "out of control." At midnight, the North fired three more short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea….

The North has reacted with a furious volley of missiles to the air drills, which practice hitting vital installations in the North. Some 240 warplanes are taking part, including about 140 South Korean aircraft such as F-35A, F-15K and KF-16 fighter jets and KC330 mid-air refueling aircraft, as well as about 100 U.S. warplanes such as F35B fighters, EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft, U-2 high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft and KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refueling aircraft.

The two allies are practicing destroying North Korean fighter jets in air combat and striking more than 700 major targets in North Korea like nuclear missile bases, command posts and major munitions factories.

The training kicked off on Oct. 31 and was originally scheduled to end Friday, but the two countries unprecedentedly decided to extend it, though they did not say for how long.

Any real war would see the decimation of North Korea – unless China chooses to participate, in some ghastly replay of the original Korean War. So what does Pyongyang hope to achieve? The current South Korean President is fairly hard-line on North Korea, and unlikely to waver given US support.

Of course there's a strong element of this aggression being targeted for home consumption: we're in a state of war, which is why you need to support the Supreme Leader at all costs, and why your lives are so shit.

Talking of which:

North Korea's frenzied barrage of missile and artillery launches in recent days could have paid for a year's rice imports for the impoverished country, experts estimate.

In an interview with Radio Free Asia on Thursday, Bruce Bennett of the conservative RAND Corporation estimated the cost of the 25 missiles fired on Wednesday alone at US$50-75 million given that each costs $2 to 3 million.

In 2019, the North imported $70 million worth of rice from China.

"The actual cost of North Korean missiles might be lower than the international level, considering that they're making missiles by overtaxing manpower and squeezing materials," a military officer here speculated. "The latest provocations show that they're in a desperate situation."

The North has been in serious economic difficulties since a total border lockdown early in the coronavirus pandemic. Yoo Seong-ok, a former chief of the Institute for National Security Strategy, said, "The North is launching provocations to create a warlike atmosphere and quell domestic discontent with economic difficulties."

The provocations are clearly aimed at gaining the maximum international attention, with missiles being fired in the direction of South Korea and Japan and including an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the U.S. mainland.