Mick Hartley

This is interesting, in light of yesterday's post on the increasing ties between Israel and China:

China welcomed four Gulf states, all traditional US allies, to a four-day summit in Beijing yesterday as they looked for new security guarantees in the face of uncertainty about Washington’s reliability.

Officials in Beijing greeted the arrival of foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait, along with Nayef bin Falah al-Hajrah, secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council, with a fanfare of approval.

“Members of the Gulf Cooperation Council have a deep traditional friendship with China and are important co-operative partners of China in western Asia and north Africa,” Wang Wenbin, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, said.

China is a big customer for oil from the Gulf, buying a sixth of the GCC’s total exports before the pandemic, and is keen to use the purchases to build a stronger diplomatic and security relationship.

Now the Gulf states, which have long been under pressure to keep Beijing at bay because of their historic reliance on the US for military protection, want to foster ties too.

Saudi Arabia in particular is hoping China will intervene with Iran, its great regional rival. China and Iran have been drawn together in recent years by the common threat they see from the US.

That would normally put China on the opposite diplomatic side from Riyadh, but the ruling Saudi royal family is nervous about the hostility expressed by President Biden. Far from supporting Saudi Arabia in its war against the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, the US is restricting arms sales.

Other US allies in the region, such as the United Arab Emirates, have bought weapons, particularly attack drones, from China. While it would be a shock if Beijing were to supplant the US dominance of Gulf arms imports, China’s published strategy for the region includes a pledge to work towards closer military co-operation.

That includes supporting “the development of national defence and military forces of Arab states to maintain peace and security”, via “co-operation on weapons, equipment and various specialised technologies”.

Global Times, a Communist Party-run newspaper, said the visit could result in a free-trade agreement, on which negotiations began in 2004 but have made little progress.

Analysts told the newspaper that it was reasonable for Gulf countries to boost their ties with Beijing at a time when Washington was reducing its dependence on Gulf energy imports.

“Especially after China signed a 25-year agreement with Iran in 2021 to enhance comprehensive co-operation, GCC members feel it’s much more urgent to solidify relations with China through signing key treaties and documents as well,” Yin Gang, a researcher at the Institute of West-Asian and African Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, was quoted as saying.

China also wants to ensure its supplies of energy are stable at a time of uncertainty on world markets and with Kazakhstan, a significant supplier, in turmoil.

So as the US withdraws, first Russia – in Syria – and now China step in. Russia has its military, but China is clearly more of a long term concern. It takes some effort to look on the bright side here, but if China and the Sunni Arab states are building ties, that at least acts as a counterweight to the China-Iran links – and for Israel, after the Abraham Accords and the increasingly friendly relations with the Gulf States in the face of Iranian threats, that might be at least some kind of positive.