Mick Hartley

The uprising in Bahrain is no doubt inspired by the "Arab Spring" stirrings elsewhere in the region, but it's also the latest manifestation of the old Sunni-Shia conflict – or, in modern terms, the Saudi-Iran conflict. A Sunni minority rules over a Shia majority, who complain of discrimination. Iran sees itself as a protector of the Shia, and indeed has a long-standing claim to ownership of Bahrain.

If the simmering Saudi-Iran Sunni-Shia Arab-Persian feud were ever to erupt, Bahrain would be the place.

For the moment Iran has confined itself to strong rhetoric. Perhaps it was wrong-footed by the sudden movement of Saudi troops across the King Fahd Causeway – which may or may not count as an invasion, depending on how legitimate you consider the current rulers in Bahrain to be.

Certainly the Saudi press is in no doubt. From an Arab News editorial:

Iran has described the GCC [Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf] troops who have gone to Bahrain as “foreign” and their presence there as “interference.” What hypocrisy! It is Iran that has been interfering in Bahrain, Iran that is the foreign power. As for its concerns for the protesters, they would be touching were it not for the brutal way in which it deals with its own protesters. It hangs them. No one is going to take any lessons from President Ahmadinejad on the subject of dealing with dissent.

Bahrain is not part of Iran, whatever Tehran may think or claim — as it regularly does. It is an Arab state and part of the GCC which exists, among other things, as a mutual defense organization. If any one member feels threatened, externally or internally, it has the right in international law to call for help from the others. That is what Bahrain has done. For Iran to talk of foreign interference is a calculated insult to all Arabs and flies in the face of reality.

And Iran replies in kind.

From the latest BBC report:

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, which backs Shia Muslims in the region, blamed the US for the crackdown.

"This expedition is a very foul and doomed experience and regional nations will hold the American government responsible for this," he said, quoted by Irna news agency.

The blaming of America is obligatory, of course, but the impression is that the Iranians are blustering and don't know how to respond. Though the US are no doubt being kept informed by the Saudis and by the Bahraini rulers, it's most unlikely that they've played any active role in this, given the Obama administration's reluctance to do anything elsewhere in the region.

Each of these Arab uprisings is different, but this one is more different than most – and, potentially, more explosive.

Update: on the US-Saudi divide:

Saudi Arabia's intervention in Bahrain amid Shiite-led opposition violence has exposed festering political differences between Riyadh and the United States over the revolts rocking the Arab world.

The surprise Saudi decision to lead a regional mission into the strife-torn and strategic kingdom ruled by a Sunni minority also reflected the deep shadow cast by Iran in instability testing US-allied leaders across the Gulf.

Washington appeared to have little if any advance notice that Saudi Arabia, a crucial ally, would roll with Gulf Cooperation Council troops into Bahrain — despite the visit of Defense Secretary Robert Gates to Manama last week….

Analysts said that the disagreement between the allies over Bahrain was a symptom of wider Saudi disgust at Washington's support for the concept of "universal rights" as unrest and rebellion sweep the Arab world.

"It is quite apparent that the United States and Saudi Arabia are not on the same page," said Simon Henderson, a specialist in Saudi and Gulf issues with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.