Mick Hartley

Given that he had to seem tough, yet at the same time wanted at all costs to avoid military escalation, the South Korean president has had a difficult hand to play over the sinking of the Cheonan. Andrei Lankov, veteran North Korea observer, reckons that overall Lee's done well:

What will come next? It seems that stage three of the government strategy will make use of diplomatic activity. Seoul is determined to bring the issue to the U.N. Security Council, so in the next few weeks envoys and ambassadors will spend a lot of their travel allowances, and newspaper reports will talk about an uncertain and intense diplomatic game.

Frankly, there is nothing uncertain in this game ― its outcome is quite predictable. China will never support the further increase of pressure on North Korea, so it will either prevent the Security Council from passing a resolution on the issue or will make this resolution toothless.

In all probability, Russia will join Chinese efforts. All this seems to be well understood in Seoul. However, the diplomatic activity ― doomed to fail eventually ― will help produce the desirable impression for the public which wants the government to “do something" in a situation where nothing can really be done.

Is this game Machiavellian? Probably. But this author not merely enjoys the spectacle, but also approves of the government actions. For a while it appeared as if the North Korea policy of President Lee had been hijacked by the hard-line ideologues.

The recent events have shown that this is not the case. Calculating politicians are in command, and this is good. Smart manipulation are better than an honest war which seems to be the alternative to avert.