Mick Hartley

Back into action after a brief trip (of which, perhaps, more anon) and let's catch up with some North Korean news. A week and a half ago it seemed as good as definite; now South Korea's foreign minister says it's obvious that the North Koreans sank the Cheonan, and the smoking gun appears to have been found – "a propeller from the torpedo that likely sank the ship in relatively good condition in waters where it sank and the serial number inscribed on it is North Korean". That's it then: signed, sealed, delivered.

Denials and bluster from the official KCNA news agency continue, and will no doubt get worse. Should the South, with the backing of the US, seek out a confrontation, then the DPRK will "mete out merciless and resolute punishment to the warmongers". They have been warned.

Alongside increasing tension from the Cheonan incident comes news of internal dissension, which seems to be focusing on the issue of Kim Jong-Un, the Dear Leader's chosen successor:

Pyongyang in January launched a major publicity campaign on behalf of Kim Jong-un for civilian security units defending the de-militarized zone. The slogan is: "Young general Comrade Kim Jong-un is our leader, upholding the succession of the generations." A song has been written that now everyone is meant to learn by heart. 

The campaign has expanded to regional administrative cadres and ordinary military units since February and the entire population since March. A senior official said Kim Jong-un may be presented formally in an October ceremony marking the anniversary of the Workers' Party, adding that the succession campaign is progressing "faster than expected."

The problem is public discontent since a botched currency reform late last year sent prices skyrocketing and aggravated a food crisis. The publicity campaign could provoke similar indignation….

[S]tarving families are said to have swarmed local party headquarters and protested, and even local party officials are openly complaining. Provincial party officials in Chongjn, North Hamgyong Province, and Hamhung, South Hamgyong Province, effectively stopped working, telling party headquarters there is nothing they can do if there is nothing to eat.  

With rumors spreading that Kim Jong-un led an unpopular "100-day struggle" and "150-day struggle" that pressed people into service on the farms and even the currency reform, public disaffection is reaching critical mass.

A recent North Korean defector said people are openly calling Kim Jong-un "an immature little bastard" who is "more savage than his father." Anti-government sentiment prevails among college students in Pyongyang and other major cities, who say the dynastic succession is a feudal practice and a betrayal of socialism.   

Kim junior has become a sort of lightning rod for discontent, and earlier hopes for change seem to have been abandoned, the defector said. The current campaign for Kim Jong-un's succession looks hasty and slapdash compared to the long years it took to establish Kim Jong-il as his father's heir, a senior North Korean defector said.

But given Kim senior's bad health, the issue apparently cannot be delayed further. The senior defector added the North's "control tower" seems to have crumbled. Instead of mapping out a succession campaign taking public opinion in account, the process is so awkward that it looks almost like a deliberate attempt to bungle it.

The Immature Little Bastard would surely be the perfect sucessor to the Dear Leader.