Mick Hartley

So it's as good as definite then:

Traces of gunpowder found in the wreckage of the Navy corvette Cheonan, which sank in an explosion in the West Sea on March 26, came from a torpedo, a government official said Friday.

"Explosive traces found in the Cheonan's chimney and the seabed on which the stern's broken-off side had been lying were all confirmed as those of the high explosive RDX, which is more powerful than TNT," the official told the Yonhap news agency. "This explosive is used in torpedoes, not sea mines." The tiny amount of gunpowder ingredient was detected in the Cheonan's funnel….

Investigators have also identified four pieces of aluminum alloy found at the scene as part of a torpedo. The official told Yonhap the material is an alloy of aluminum and magnesium commonly used in a torpedo's casing….

The ministry says another two weeks will be needed to complete the analysis and that an announcement could be made around May 20. The team, which consists of South Korean and U.S. investigators, has been working aboard the South Korean ship Dokdo isolated from contact with the outside. But starting on Friday, investigators are moving to a Navy base in Pyeongtaek, and a number of personnel are expected to leave.

There are rumors that U.S. experts have already reported their findings to American military commanders and government officials and that the probe will be wrapped up soon.

There are signs that the Chinese are somewhat embarrassed to be hosting the Dear Leader so soon after the funeral of the 46 South Korean sailors who were, it's now fairly clear, killed by a North Korean torpedo attack. The attendance of the two leaders at a much-anticipated performance of the Chinese classic "Dream of the Red Mansion", considered a symbol of the close alliance between the two countries, and to be performed by a troupe from Pyongyang, was apparently called off at the last minute. It would have been a fun evening:

All tickets for the Beijing performances for Thursday and Friday were reportedly bought by the Chinese government, indicating that Kim and Hu will watch the performance together.

Presumably Chinese pressure on Kim, and the need to put a positive spin on the visit, resulted in the announcement that North Korea was committed to nuclear disarmament and a return to the six-party talks, though it wasn't explained why anyone should take this nonsense seriously.