Mick Hartley

A couple of items from the South Korean Chosun Ilbo. First off:

Military insiders believe there is mounting evidence that the Navy corvette Cheonan was hit by a North Korean torpedo before it broke in two and sank in waters near the de-facto inter-Korean border. But the Defense Ministry and military authorities insist on the importance of establishing the exact cause of the incident before any conclusions are announced.

A senior military officer on Thursday said, "There is a 60 to 70 percent chance that the ship was hit" by a North Korean torpedo. But he added the question remains whether any evidence was left behind.

He based his speculation on indications that the ship was sunk by an external explosion and that a torpedo was in his view a more likely cause than an old mine from the days of the Korean War, a possibility that has also been floated.

"A possibility that has also been suggested" might have been better in this context. But we get the drift….(sorry)

And then, more intriguingly:

Amid rampant speculation that the Navy corvette Cheonan sank due to a torpedo attack by a North Korean submarine or semi-submersible, there are reports that South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies detected a submarine disappearing and reappearing at a North Korean submarine base on the west coast not far from the site of the wreck around Friday, the day the ship sank.

A South Korean government source said on Tuesday, "Scrutiny of pictures taken by U.S. spy satellites reveals one submarine in North Korea's Sagot naval base some 50 km away from Baeknyeong Island disappeared for a few days before Friday last week and returned to base later."

The source said North Korean submarines or semi-submersibles "occasionally disappear from the base and come back, so it's difficult at the moment to relate this to the sinking of the Cheonan. We are currently establishing the exact circumstances."