Mick Hartley

As investigations into the sinking of the Cheonan continue, the South Koreans are slowly and cautiously re-introducing the North Korean connection which they were initially so keen to play down:

The South Korean government has backtracked, albeit carefully, on the likelihood that the Cheonan was sunk, one way or another, by North Korea, saying now that it is a definite possibility. As a result, the likely impact of the Cheonan tragedy on inter-Korean relations is being debated by experts.

Kim Tae Young, South Korea’s Minister of National Defense, attended the National Defense Committee of the National Assembly on March 29th, a meeting in which he stated, “Neither the government nor Ministry of National Defense ever stated that the possibility of North Korea being involved in the incident had been discounted. All possibilities should be reviewed and then a conclusion reached.”

This is the first time that a high ranking government official has mentioned the possibility of North Korean involvement in public.

It indicates a change to the prior governmental position, which was to reject rumors of North Korean involvement through quotes such as, “No evidence suggesting North Korea’s involvement has been found” or “There was no movement of North Korean ships near the waters where the incident occurred.”

If North Korea was involved, torpedo attack from a submarine or semi-submersible craft and naval mine are the two possible scenarios. The cause of the explosion will be reveal after the vessel is salvaged and a thorough investigation is made. This process will take considerable time, while proving a link between North Korea and the incident will be no easy task even if the circumstantial evidence is convincing.

The possibility of an internal explosion seems now to have been discounted. If the boat had been intentionally attacked by the North Koreans, though, some kind of statement would normally have been expected from the official news agency, the KCNA, along the lines of it being a justified reaction to intolerable provocation from the war-mongering US stooges etc etc.. But there's been silence. Perhaps they realise they've pushed too far this time, especially with a conservative South Korean leader, Lee Myung-bak, who's associated with a more confrontational stance to the DPRK and its provocations. At the moment there does seem to be a feeling of creeping cack-handedness from the normally ruthless and sure-footed regime in Pyongyang after the currency devaluation fiasco, as the Dear Leader's health fails and voices of discontent are making themselves heard.

Now the weather's hampering the rescue operation, but when the ship with the bodies of the forty-six sailors is finally salvaged this story will hit the headlines again. Angry South Koreans may start to reassess their previous apathy about their fellow Koreans north of the DMZ.