Mick Hartley

Many people here believe that the Green Movement, the likes of which has not been seen since the 1979 revolution, cannot be stopped. Others see a major and ominous difference between the current situation and the events of 30 years ago – that is, the strong will of the hard-liners who currently control the State’s security forces to use all means to suppress dissent. In their view, the Shah’s regime, despite its bad name, was less determined.

With Khamenei’s words Friday and Saturday’s popular reaction, the Green Movement appears to have entered a new phase in which its growing number of adherents see the highest authority in the land as the main obstacle in the historic struggle for the rule of law and a just order in Iran. They also see Khamenei himself as having chosen partisanship over guardianship of the constitutional order as his institutional position demands.

At this point the challenge that began with election results, even if it ends with a defeat, has shaken the foundation of the institution of vali-ye faqih or supreme jurisprudent. And a shaken foundation makes a downfall a not-too-distant possibility. If Khamenei does not soon realise how the popular tide has turned against him, he may yet go the way of the Shah.

Because of closure and blocking of reformist websites and severe restrictions on foreign media, the only source of information within Iran has become the state-controlled media, leading to rampant rumors and speculation about what is transpiring behind the scenes. 

Many theories claim that this is a fight for power between Khamenei and Rafsanjani, who heads the Assembly of Experts, an 86-member body composed of senior Islamic Jurists charged with the election and oversight of the Supreme Leader. Passports of Rafsanjani’s children were reportedly canceled in the last several days.

One popular theory claims that Khamenei, who is in failing health, is supporting hard-liners led by Ahmadinejad to enhance the chances that his son, Mojtaba, will succeed him – a scenario believed to be strongly opposed by Rafsanjani, who reportedly has spent much of the past week engaged in discussions with senior religious leaders and members of the Experts Assembly in Qom about the possibility of replacing Khamenei with a Supreme Council of Leaders. 

On Sunday, however, some members of the Experts Assembly released a statement of support for Khameini and the views he expressed Friday, a statement touted by the state media as a full endorsement by the entire Assembly of the Supreme Leader.

Nonetheless, Qom-based sources reported that Rafsanjani’s proposal enjoyed the support of at least one third of the Assembly. Several grand ayatollahs in Qom have issued public statements condemning the election results or the use of violence to suppress peaceful demonstrations. 

While Sunday morning witnessed relative calm on the streets of Tehran and other cities, most analysts believe that the crisis is far from over.