Mick Hartley

There is, I was surprised to learn (from here), a World Rock-Paper-Scissors Championship, to be held in Toronto this coming Saturday. The first prize is $10,000.

Since the essence of the game is randomness, this would seem to be a deeply ridiculous idea. Anyone who enters should have the same chance as anyone else. But it gets interesting. Inevitably with a popular game like this you get people with theories, like this strategy guide:

• Basic Strategies: Readers will learn the importance of using gambits, a series of three successive moves made with strategic intention. As with chess players, no strategic repertoire is complete without learning gambits. With names like The Avalanche, Fist Full of Dollars and Scissor Sandwich, readers will learn how to wield these with devastating results.

• Gamesmanship: Gamesmanship concentrates on positioning the players for victory. What separates RPS from other sports is the extent to which gamesmanship is a factor in even the most casual play. Effective gamesmanship allows the player to deceive an opponent into making a predictable throw or have them miscalculate one’s next throw. The key to successful gamesmanship is never to let the opponent realize that he is being manipulated.

• RPS enthusiasts will also learn advanced strategies, crucial for those playing above the level of the recreation player, which throws are illegal and (because RPS is very dull when played alone) instructions on how to set up local RPS clubs and tournaments.

The Fist Full of Dollars? Here you go:

This move took the 1967 RPS World Championships by surprise and is arguably still one of the great surprise offensive moves.

It's, um, rock, paper, paper.

How serious is any of this? Are they taking the piss? Maybe not. The point is, apparently, that people do not, in fact, play randomly. Whether they're aware of it or not, they'll adopt some kind of strategy. And once someone's playing to a plan, all you need to do is work out what that plan is, and…..you've got them. So the best strategy, in true Buddhist fashion, may be the empty mind strategy: don't plan, don't think, just act.

The Wikipedia page is interesting. There is, it seems, an RPS evolutionary strategy in the mating behaviour of the side-blotched lizard:

Males have either orange, blue or yellow throats and each type follows a fixed, heritable mating strategy

• Orange-throated males are strongest and do not form strong pair bonds; instead, they fight blue-throated males for their females. Yellow-throated males, however, manage to snatch females away from them for mating.
• Blue-throated males are middle-sized and form strong pair bonds. While they are outcompeted by orange-throated males, they can defend against yellow-throated ones.
• Yellow-throated males are smallest, and their coloration mimics females. Under this disguise, they can approach orange-throated males but not the stronger-bonding blue-throated specimens and mate while the orange-throats are engaged in fights.

This can be summarized as "orange beats blue, blue beats yellow, and yellow beats orange".