Mick Hartley

Here’s an interesting article by Andrei Lankov on the chances of Chinese intervention in North Korea:

[I]f Kim Jong Il dies suddenly, or without an heir, or with an unpopular and weak heir, the situation could easily disintegrate into danger and havoc. Nobody wants that, of course, and the Chinese might move in with or without UN approval. They will probably secure the situation, but the likely outcome will be the emergence of a pro-Chinese government in Pyongyang.

The Chinese might even undertake a pre-emptive operation, without waiting for disaster to strike. The North Korean elite is deadly afraid of unification with the South, assuming that after such a unification they will be held responsible for their old deeds, purged and perhaps even killed (this is unlikely to happen, but being in the habit of killing their own opponents, these people have some trouble in realizing that political defeat does not necessarily lead to a slaughter).

A pro-Chinese government would keep Kim’s officials in place – alive and well they would enjoy an increasingly affluent lifestyle. So, joining hands with the Chinese against the supposed brethren in the South seems to be a logical decision – at least if things get seriously unstable. This makes a pro-Chinese coup in Pyongyang a distinct possibility.

The simmering specter of Chinese occupation is widely discussed in Seoul nowadays. It is seen as an ultimate disaster by nationalists, who believe that such a turn of events will make the division of Korea permanent….

These days everybody who thinks about the fate of North Korean has to consider the Chinese takeover as a possibility to be taken seriously. In most cases it is seen as a disaster, but is it really that bad?

One should not welcome such a turn of events, of course. However, Chinese intervention, while not being the best available solution, might still open ways for hope – at least in comparison with the present-day gloomy and explosive situation. To start with, the world probably will be unable and/or willing to do much anyway. If a pro-Chinese coup is staged in Pyongyang, the world will face a fait accompli, so all protests will be useless.