Mick Hartley

As tensions mount and more violence threatens in Burma, an article at PM looks at the Chinese connection, quoting the South Asian Analysis Group:

China was the only state that stood by Myanmar since the military took over power in 1988. Myanmar is heavily dependent on China for all its military requirements as they have been buying them at “friendship prices”. China on the other hand is wooing Myanmar both for its economic and strategic interests. To exploit the river and road networks in Myanmar, China has entered into a long term agreement with Myanmar. China is building new roads linking Myanmar with the South-West provinces, clearing the Irrawady river for bigger barges and modernising some of the ports and shipyards of Myanmar.

But the Chinese are being cautious:

China has gently urged Myanmar’s military rulers to ease the strife that has seen tens of thousands take to the streets in protest, diplomats said Tuesday, even as Beijing said publicly it would stick to a hands-off approach toward its neighbor.

China has quietly shifted gears, the diplomats said, jettisoning its noninterventionist line for behind-the-scenes diplomacy. A senior Chinese official asked junta envoys this month to reconcile with opposition democratic forces. And China arranged a low-key meeting in Beijing between Myanmar and State Department envoys to discuss the release of the leading opposition figure.

For a country that has been Myanmar’s staunchest diplomatic protector, largest trading partner and a leading investor, the shift is crucial. Asian and Western diplomats in Beijing and Southeast Asia said China’s influence in Myanmar is second to none and could be decisive in restraining the junta from a violent confrontation with protesters.

“China has been working to convey the concerns of the international community to the Burmese government,” a Western diplomat in Beijing said on condition of anonymity, citing policy. “But it could definitely do more to apply pressure.”

Since the threat of disruption to the 2008 Beijing Olympics seems to have paid some dividends in pushing China into modifying its policies on Darfur, maybe the same could apply here. Then again, though, perhaps encouraging opposition to the authority of a geriatric bunch of leaders, ruling in the name of a discredited socialist ideology, would hit a little too close to home.