Mick Hartley

Michael J. Totten’s latest report from Iraq.

That large numbers of the Iraqi army are members of Moqtada al Sadr’s radical Shia Mahdi Army militia kind of ties in with what I wrote a couple of weeks back, about the withdrawal of British troops and Rory Stewart’s book, “Occupational Hazards“.

Of course there’s a big difference between Baghdad and Basra: the UK troops down south don’t have the added complication of the Sunnis to contend with, for a start. But despite concern about the power of Moqtada al Sadr, and his obvious Iranian links, I think it’s important to bear in mind what Rory Stewart wrote: “We underestimate the power of Iraqi society. Iraqi politicians are far more intelligent and competent than we acknowledge.” The dynamics of the situation at the moment are that Iran can side with the Shia Mahdi Army militia as partners against the Coalition. Once we leave, though, the dynamics change. The Mahdi Army may be Shi’ites, but they’re Iraqi Shi’ites. They don’t want to be beholden to Iran. To those who worry that Iran is exploiting the situation in Iraq – which of course it is – there’s the other side of the coin: Iraqi Shi’ites are exploiting the Iranians (and, to judge from Michael Totten’s report, the Coalition) to get where they want to be. So it goes.